3monkeys

I know I said I would talk about my potential trades in Fantasy Baseball 2008 – Hitter draft, but even though I’ve tried nothing has materialized. For the record, I’m trying to trade off Kouzmanoff or Encarnacion for those weak at 3B, in the 40 man league. In the mean time, I thought it might be interesting to analyze players in respect to a normal 5×5 league.

HR

HR is by far this most important stat in a normal 5×5 league. As mentioned by me before, HR count not only for a HR but also a R and a RBI with a bit of a bump to AVG. We therefore need to rate high HR above all other categories. As a matter of fact the only traditional 5×5 category HR does not effect is SB. HR will even be a little bit of a boost over the normal one RBI by a bit, by the fact that not every HR is a solo-shot. We might safely asume that a HR is worth a R, 2 RBI a HR. AVG though affected will remain little affected from year to year by the number of HRs. Give this I assume a factor of x4 per projected HR in a normal 5×5 league. Given that the league leader in R (143) and RBI (156) both by Alex Rodriguez is slightly higher than the high HR total x4 of (54 x 4 = 216) also by Alex Rodriguez, we can determine that HR are worth a lot in 5×5 leagues. The problem is that in any draft, you can not obtain 3 of the top 20 HR producers. You will need to shore up the R, RBI and AVG stats with other players.

R

R (Runs) indicate a few things, the ability to get on base (AVG), speed – stretching a single into a double, a double into a triple, or a stolen base, and finally getting on base in front of high average hitters. The last tright coupled with the first traight usually spells a leadoff or second place hitter. Managers usually make good of this by placing a speedy hitter in the 1st or second place in the batting order. Due to the depth of Detroits lineup, look for top of the order Detroit players to give you a bunch of R’s

RBI

Given the fact that fast, high AVG players will be batting in the top of the order, look for high RBI producers to make up the meat of the order – 3rd through 6th. These will likely be your power hitters as well. A classic example is Ortiz and Rameriz batting 3rd and 4th in Boston with Lowell finishing up a murders row. With their off season acquisitions, look for Detroit hitters in this range to give you a lot of RBI. Teams with high RBI potential based on 2007 numbers are NYY (929), DET (857), PHI (850), BOS (829) and COL (823). Since RBI roughly equates to R, these teams will help you in Rs as well.
AVG

AVG (Average), is largely an individual statistic, for this you can look back on past performance and a change in location , especially a batting order change. Players with more protection will see a better pitch selection than those without protection. Usually those with protection will be batting 3rd or 4th. Again refer to Ortiz and Rameriz. Players that hit high in the order also tend to have a higher AVG; after all it is better to have men on base when the power hitters come up in the 3rd, 4th and 5th spots. Drafting players in the top of the order will also give you an AB (at bat) bonus. Generally each spot in the order gets about 20 less at bats than the spot above. This means that if a lead off hitter gets 650 ABs during the season the 6 spot will get about 120 less or about 430. This means 120 less chances for a HR, 120 less chances for a RBI, 120 less chances for … well you get the idea.

SB

Finally SB is almost a totally individual statistic. The only thing it really depends on other than the individuals skills, is the teams game play philosophy. Teams like the A’s don’t steal where as teams like the Mets steal as much as they can, last year the A’s only had 52 SB where as the Mets had 200 SB. Following the Mets were the Orioles (144) Angels (139) and Phillies (138) while the Padres (55), Cardinals (56) and Blue Jays (57) lead the A’s. Since team philosophy does play in SB, you need to identify where that philosophy may have changed. For example, Joe Torre moved from New York to Los Angeles, each team had similar steals last year with NYY at 123 and LAD at 137 so there should not be a big swing for the LAD.

Since SB indicates speed, you can generally account for these players being able to streatch out 1Bs into 2Bs, and 2Bs into 3Bs setting up more scoring opportunites thus more Rs. They will also be able to score more often from first base on 2Bs or second base on 1Bs. So, if you get a speedster expect a little bump to Rs.

Here are my top 25 hitters for 2008 and my projections for their statistics.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA
Alex Rodriguez	NYY	3B	578	121	45	130	18	0.308
Hanley Ramirez	FLA	SS	613	106	27	76	47	0.315
Jose Reyes	NYM	SS	642	114	16	62	68	0.291
David Wright	NYM	3B	592	108	32	108	25	0.316
Matt Holliday	COL	OF	616	112	36	125	10	0.321
Miguel Cabrera	DET	3B	591	110	37	128	3	0.332
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	SS	673	123	25	82	36	0.293
Albert Pujols	STL	1B	547	106	38	110	5	0.327
Chase Utley	PHI	2B	602	118	30	110	12	0.316
Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	560	101	50	135	0	0.275
Ryan Braun	MIL	3B	597	102	37	106	19	0.295
David Ortiz	BOS	DH	542	110	41	123	1	0.303
Carl Crawford	TB	OF	606	100	15	78	50	0.304
Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	567	103	45	115	3	0.291
Grady Sizemore	CLE	OF	624	119	27	80	28	0.282
Mark Teixeira	ATL	1B	590	102	38	121	2	0.297
Carlos Beltran	NYM	OF	542	104	32	109	19	0.277
Alfonso Soriano	CHC	OF	600	100	36	82	25	0.282
Vladimir Guerrero	ANA	OF	566	94	31	113	6	0.322
Carlos Lee	HOU	OF	609	94	32	116	12	0.294
Lance Berkman	HOU	1B/OF	536	95	35	110	4	0.295
Nick Markakis	BAL	OF	603	97	26	104	14	0.297
Brandon Phillips	CIN	2B	596	96	25	88	27	0.279
B.J. Upton	TB	OF/2B	555	96	24	86	29	0.277
Alex Rios	TOR	OF	597	102	24	88	17	0.300

Until next time.

-3Monkeys

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This entry was posted on Thursday, April 3rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm and is filed under Baseball, Fantasy Sports, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.